13 September, 2020

World: Barley trade forecast for 2020/21 increased due to expected larger shipments from Russia and Australia

World barley trade forecast for 2020/21 is increased to 26.978 mln tonnes this month versus 25.278 mln tonnes in the August report, USDA said on September 11.

Export forecast is up for Russia (plus 1.5 mln tonnes to 5.1 mln on a substantially larger production) and Australia (+200 thousand tonnes to 4.4 mln on a larger than expected crop). Import forecast is up for Iran (+600 thousand tonnes to 3 mln thanks to large supplies in the world), Saudi Arabia (+500 thousand tonnes to 7.5 mln thanks to large exportable supplies in Russia), Thailand (+200 thousand tonnes to 900 thousand thanks to large exportable supplies in Australia), and Tunisia (+200 thousand tonnes to 700 thousand tonnes due to large exportable supplies in Russia).

Barley trade forecast for 2019/20 is 26.389 mln tonnes.

World barley production is expected to reach 156.975 mln tonnes in 2020/21 (mostly due to a 3 mln tonne increase in the production forecast for Russia) vs 156.297 mln tonnes in 2019/20 and 152.752 mln in the August forecast.

Total consumption is seen at 155.842 mln tonnes (vs 154.315 mln in 2019/20 and 152.651 mln tonnes in the August report) and ending stocks are forecast at 20.966 mln tonnes (vs. 19.833 and 20.872 mln tonnes, respectively).

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